The Tren of Aragua brand is much stronger than the organization behind it, largely fed by the outgoing speech of the United States. But what is the future of gang and organized venezuelan transnational crime?
Intelligent Venezuelan criminals now avoid any brand Tren of Aragua. WE acknowledgement From the group as a foreign terrorist organization opens a more complete law application tool box, not a box to be overlighted long -term survival. The awareness of the group through Latin America pushed it to the top of the priorities to apply the law in many countries. The leadership and main cohesion of the group were beaten with the loss of its home base of Tocorón prison in Aragua and the capture of leaders in Colombia, Peru and Chile. All this suggests that Tren de Aragua is declining. Is it an irreversible decline? What factors could shape the future of Tren de Aragua?
* This article is the ninth in a Nine game survey“Tren de Aragua: done against fiction”, ” The analysis of the truth about the gang, as well as its evolution, its current operations and how it could change in the future. Read the complete survey here.
1. To what extent Tren of Aragua is offensives of the security force
There is a belief now, with the crushing of the formerly powerful gangs of rue Mara in Salvador, that criminal groups can be quickly defeated. However, it should be considered that Salvador is a very small nation, of size comparable to the American state of Massachusetts, and the slumps, while the shadow of their old self in Salvador, is still booming in Guatemala and neighboring Honduras.
There are many criminal unions that have survived decades of national and international pressure of the security force in Latin America, such as Colombia National army (Ejército de Liberación Nacional – Eln), founded in 1964; Brazil Red command (Comando Vermelho – CV), founded in the early 1970s; And Mexico Sinaloa cartelWith roots dating back to the 1970s. It should however be noted that these groups operate in their countries of origin for the most part, unlike Tren de Aragua, which has many affiliates established in foreign countries, which makes them more vulnerable.
Their survival depends in part on the way in which the Venezuelan gangs abroad consolidate their presence, diversify their sources of income and integrate into the local criminal landscape, recruiting the inhabitants and penetrating the political worlds and the local police.
The survival of Tren of Aragua as an organization, not only as a franchise name, depends on how the various affiliated gangs support each other. Mutual support and strengthening could multiply their strength and resilience. On the other hand, the way in which the various security forces and law enforcement agencies in the Americas work together could considerably increase the efficiency of national efforts to dismantle the Venezuelan gang, by sharing information and by conducting joint operations.
2. continues to migrate Venezuela flows and the ability of Aragua to exploit them
Tren de Aragua went transnational to the back of the Venezuelan migrants, operating them when they crossed Latin America and continued to enjoy them once they settled. Future migration flows may well have an oversized impact on its evolution. In January of this year, President Nicolás Maduro settled for six years of rule, having stolen the 2024 elections. investigation In August of last year, more than 40% of Venezuelans revealed their wish to leave the country.
While Colombia, Peru, the United States and Chile have some of the largest Venezuelans diasporasAnd so families and friends to help new migrants establish themselves, the two First Nations suffer from saturation of the labor markets, aggravated in Colombia with a turning economy. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has become a hostile environment for migrants, while the increase in xenophobia in Chile also discourages the Venezuelans. Therefore, migration will likely pass to different places.
See also:: Criminal portfolio of Tren de Aragua: adapt or die
The possible destinations include Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and some of the most prosperous Caribbean nations. Tren of Aragua is well placed for Brazil and the Nations of the Caribbean of Guyana and Suriname, with its last sanctuary in Venezuela, that of Las Claritas in the state of Bolívar, seated near the borders of Brazil and Guyana. Sources have also revealed how the founder of Tren of Aragua who directs the criminal fief of Las Claritas, Yohan Jose Romero, alias “Johan Petrica”, is a regular visitor of the Northern Brazilian state of Roraima, who now has an important Venezuelan diaspora, the Spaniard being widely spoken alongside the native Portuguese.
There is little evidence of the presence of Tren of Aragua in one of the nations of the southern cone, countries traditionally safer than their neighbors in the North, and therefore perhaps vulnerable to criminal penetration while Chile has been found.
3. Position adopted by the Maduro regime
The takeover of Tocorón prison reported the final change in the position of Tren of Aragua with regard to the Maduro regime of a protected or at least tolerated criminal outfit to a formal state enemy. However, it is clear that the faction of Johan Petrica still benefits from local protection against the military and political authorities in the state of Bolívar.
The Maduro regime could go in both directions now. He could either carry out an Operation of Tocorón style in Las Claritas, Bolívar, and destroy the last remaining sanctuary from Tren from Aragua to Venezuela, or he could decide that the gang is an asset, and leave it either in Venezuela, while using elements abroad to pursue its geopolitical and economic objectives.
The Maduro regime faces several different challenges. The first is international, Venezuela facing isolation on the presidential elections stolen last year. But with regard to the United States, the tone changed in August, with the offer of $ 50 million award for information leading to the capture and / or the conviction of Nicolás Maduro. This, combined with a statement by the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, suggests that Washington will pursue a much more aggressive policy against Venezuela, while allowing American companies, like Chevron to operate.
“Maduro is the chief of the narco-terrorist organization designated cartel of Los Soles, and he is responsible for drug trafficking in the United States and Europe”, Rubio said.
The second huge Maduro challenge is economical. Without enough income to maintain public services and finance the local government, Maduro depends on criminal savings to maintain loyal higher diet figures. Contraband, gold and cocaine are the main employees. And the involvement of Venezuela in the cocaine trade was deepened with the sowing of Industrial size coca plantations To produce cocaine in the country. Venezuela is no longer simply a transit nation for cocaine, but a producer.
If Tren de Aragua, which already has retail operations of drugs in Colombia, Peru and Chile, was to become an asset and a partner for the Cartel des Suns, which is incomed drug trafficking organizations in the Maduro regime, then the gang could regain a certain political protection and therefore impunity.
4. Aragua's ability to settle in the prisons of Latin America
If there is one thing that Tren de Aragua understands well, it is how to direct a prison. Born as a “pranato” or a prison gang from Tocorón prison, Venezuelan criminals understand how to manage a prison and transform one into a base for criminal operations with an influence far beyond the walls. Insight Crime found evidence of Venezuelan criminals gaining influence, and even of certain levels of control, in prisons in Colombia (especially in the border city of Cúcuta), Peru and Chile.
If the penitentiary authorities are corrupt or unable to effectively maintain governance within a penitentiary with an important Venezuelan population, there are risks of Aragua or affiliated criminals which set up criminal infrastructure and able to project themselves beyond the walls of the prison.
5. Involvement in the transnational trade in drugs, in particular cocaine
Most Latin American criminal organizations have become transnational on the back of drug trade, in particular cocaine. Tren de Aragua was an exception to this model. Although it has local drugs of drugs or microtrafficking in the context of its criminal portfolio, there have not yet been examples of gangs involved in large -scale drug trafficking through borders. However, with cells divided into Latin America, it would not be a jump for the various affiliated gangs to work together in the interest of drug trade. The fact that this has not happened is perhaps an indication of the bad levels of cooperation between different Tren of Aragua factions.
See also:: The Cocaine Revolution of Venezuela
If Tren de Aragua, by working with other Venezuelan gangs and the Suns cartel, was to make a jumper in the cocaine in wholesale, it could change the situation for the gang and to make sure that it is a siege at the criminal table. Any organization that has successfully involved in the cocaine trade tends to make very fast gains in wealth, power and sophistication.
What is clear to the rhetoric of civil servants, especially in the United States, is that Tren de Aragua is now used as a general description for all the Venezuelan criminals captured abroad, whether or not they have proven links with the prison of origin. This is the same situation with the use of the term “Cartel des Suns”, which is not a criminal organization integrated vertically led by Maduro, but rather a series of often unconnected drug trafficking organizations that operate in different Venezuelan state institutions.
Thus, of a perception of the public throughout the region, Tren de Aragua will remain a characteristic of reports and official discourse. But once the two founders of Tren of Aragua, Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, alias “Niño Guerrero”, and Johan Petrica, are captured or killed, then the prison gang which reigned once the Tocorón prison has disappeared. Everything that lives will be the brand and reputation for extreme violence.
