The Bolivians will vote on Sunday in a presidential election between candidates promising more difficult anti-drug measures to defenders of the country's nationalist policies in the country. The result could reshape the way in which the Andean nation addresses the production of cocaine, organized crime and the protection of the Amazon.
Two right -wing candidates run in polls: businessman Samuel Doria Medina and former president Jorge Quiroga. The main competitor on the left, the president of the Senate, Andrónico Rodríguez, the former chief of a Coca Growers association '. If no candidate wins the majority of the vote, there is a runoff scheduled for October 19.
With Doria Medina and Quiroga in the elbow in the polls, nearly two decades of domination by the leading movement towards socialism (Moveo al Socialism – Mas) seem to end. The party is mired in bitter intestine struggles between President Luis Arce and the former president Evo Moraleswhich is prevented from running again in 2023.
A change in political leadership could make major changes in the country's anti-narcotic strategy and COCA culture standards.
Drug policy upset?
Bolivia is one of the few countries in the world where COCA cultivation is legal in regulated quantities for traditional uses such as chewing and tea. Under the current law, up to 22,000 hectares are authorized nationally, but this quota exceeds domestic demand, leaving thousands of hectares of coca leaves available for the diversion of cocaine production.
The cultivation of Coca in Bolivia reached 31,000 hectares in 2023, up 4% compared to 2022, according to At the United Nations Drugs and Crime (UNODC). Cocaine convulsions reached a record of 46 tonnes in 2024, double the previous year, underline The growing role of the country as a producer and exporter.
The regions of Chapare and Yungas remain at the heart of the coca economy, but the candidates differ strongly on how to balance the traditional use of Coca Leaf by limiting illicit trade.
Doria Medina has focused its campaign on economic reform while promising more severe anti-drug measures, including complete eradication of excess crops and rehabilitation of illegal drug consumers, according to to its Unity Alliance platform (Alianza Unidad). He proposes to strengthen the special force to combat drug trafficking (Especial Fuerza of Lucha Contra El Narcotráfico – Felcn) and create an anti -drug justice system to target money laundering.
In an interview with Infobae, he accused The ante of governments of “cohabitation with narcotrafficking”, citing a Uruguayan trafficker Sebastián Marsetwho lived in Bolivia and had a football club, and members of the first command of Brazil (Primeiro Comando da Capital – CCP), which operates in Santa Cruz. He promised closer coordination with the Brazil federal police, noting that a large part of Bolivia cocaine passes through Brazil on Europe.
See also: The interior circle of Marset collapses as the elusive of Uruguayan traffic escapes the capture
Quiroga, who was vice-president of President Hugo Banzer in the 1990s, became president after Banzer's resignation in 2001, takes place on a platform for the law and the order. He undertakes to suppress the production of cocaine to hoppel while protecting Yungas Coca, which, according to him, is used at the national level.
Its free alliance platform (Alianza Libre) warnings That “international criminal structures have been established (in Bolivia) under the complacent look of the government, as well as its complicity”, transforming the country into “a hotel for big fish in drug trafficking and other international crimes”.
It proposes a policy aimed at repressing any coca which feeds the cocaine market, targeting unauthorized plantations and illicit COCA sales which “contribute only to the strengthening of organized and transnational crime”. He too support Reduct the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), which was excluded by Morales in 2008.
Ramiro Cavero, Quiroga's main economic adviser, said that the illegal Coca policy will focus on Coca de Chapare. “We all know that Coca du Chapare is not supposed to be mince; It is not intended for industrial consumption ”, Cavero said In an interview with Bolivien News Outlet urgent. “Most of it … is intended for illegal cocaine industry.”
Rodríguez, dragging in the polls, is a former leader of the Union of Producers of Chapare Coca and the current president of the Senate. Soliding under the popular Coalition Alliance (Alianza Popular), its platform reflects the anti-drug position of the MAS. He rejects any return of the DEA and thinks that forced eradication campaigns are used to suppress rural communities, he said Bolivian exit unitel. In a debate in August, Rodríguez accused Quiroga of the sending of “police and soldiers to mow the peasants” in Chapare during the eradication campaigns.
Alianza's popular platform omit The cultivation of the COCA and only briefly mentions illicit economies, the prioritization of efforts aimed at “modernizing border surveillance and tactical intelligence systems to combat transnational threats (drug trafficking, smuggling, illegal mining).”
Environmental crime widely ignored
Beyond the increase in COCA culture, Bolivia faces a rampant environmental crime. Deforestation, forest fires, illegal mining and mercury contamination of gold extraction are chiefs among the concerns. With few park rangers, national reserves remain vulnerable to illegal logs, minors and drug traffickers, according to In Mongabay.
While economic reform and drug policy dominate major titles, none of the main candidates offer robust plans to fight against environmental crime crawling in Amazon and beyond. Their economic models remain rooted in extractive practices which are often linked to criminal networks.
Doria Medina offers the most complete plan but lack of details. It offers zero deforestation by 2030 and prison terms up to 30 years for intentional fires, the destruction of ecosystems and other environmental crimes. Its mining reforms call for the application of environmental compliance and the formalization of cooperatives.
Quiroga rejects “the exploitation of non -renewable resources in protected areas and natural reserves”, but supports the agricultural border – which involves cleaning forests for agriculture or farming. It supports the granting of mining concessions to private companies and the elimination of artisanal or illegal mining which does not comply with new regulations.
Rodríguez promotes a state -run approach, including buildings for buildings for critical minerals, cooperative regulations to meet environmental and safety standards, prohibiting exploitation in protected areas and near water sources, and the creation of a system to follow deforestation, water pollution, fires and other environmental damage.
An analysis of insightful crime
With a probable right -wing victory, Bolivian Coca farmers are preparing for a major change in drug policy, while experts warn that the country's growing environmental crisis will remain neglected.
The federations of coca producers in Chapare are a decisive voting block and the backbone of the domination of Mas for two decades. “They are hegemonic in the region; They decide during their union meetings what they will do, and everyone adapts to the line, “said Tom Grisaffi, professor at the University of St. Gallen who did research on the production of coca and cocaine in Bolivia and Peru.
This time, with the Mas weakened by the political intestinal, most of the Chapare unions have chosen to have a zero vote approved – which vote for any candidate. “They believe that they can get around 30% of the votes, which could exceed the support of any major candidate,” said Grisaffi. Unions hope that such a result would considerably weaken the president's next mandate and make policy changes more difficult to justify if they lack large public support.
Despite the strategy, farmers are already organizing themselves to withstand anti-coca measures. “People are very concerned about the policy of zero coca under the tropics of Cochabamba,” said Grisaffi. “They discuss how to react – with demonstrations, roadblocks, mobilizations and steps.”
See also: 6 illegal economies threatening the ecosystems of Latin America
Even if the eradication campaigns and the militarization of Chapare go forward, they cannot reduce drug trafficking, said Gabriela Reyes Rodas, a Bolivian criminologist and organized crime expert.
“In the past, Bolivia has mainly produced cocaine using the Bolivian coca leaf and coca paste. But in recent years, due to a fuel shortage, the” air bridge “has strengthened,” she said. “The small aircraft of the real one in Peru bring the coca paste to refine in Beni, Santa Cruz laboratories, and the tropics. The targeting of Coca Leaf is more likely to bring violence than to shrink cocaine activity. ”
Alianza Popular de Rodríguez is also faced with Narco-Scandals. Robin Oscar Justiniano Merubia, investigated three times for drug trafficking and the alleged friend of Pedro MontenegroThe main operator of the CCP in Bolivia is running For the deputy for Santa Cruz on the party ticket.
“What concerns me in the case of Andrónico is not so much its policy, but which (its party) puts in the assembly,” said Reyes. “The risk is that a person with links with drug trafficking can shape the policy on the application of drugs, the safety of citizens, land crises, wood trafficking, etc.”
Regarding environmental reform, the race offers more rhetoric than solutions.
Operating exploitation in Bolivia often operates Under state protection and low regulations that blur the line between legal and illegal activities. Local cooperatives – comparative associations of minors on a small scale which pool resources –control 94% of national gold production and a law of 2014 entrenched their domination by establishing royalties at only 2.5% on reported sales, much lower than private sector rates.
Many cooperatives are linked to illegal players without environmental licenses and to work with questionable companies in China and Colombia. “They subcontract the sites where they have extraction permits for private entrepreneurs, whether foreigners or national,” said Reyes. “It is illegal, because the law prohibits cooperatives from associating with private actors.”
Doria Medina and Quiroga made changes in the 2014 mining law, but the political influence of the cooperative sector means that their proposals remain vague. “They don't want pre -electoral conflicts with these sectors,” said Reyes.
Star image: Aymara The Aboriginal peoples vote in Jesús de Machaca, Bolivia. Credit: Associated Press.
