The targeting of a rapid boat off the coast of Venezuela announced on September 2 in the United States War against South America. But who are the players and what will be the impact of the murder of 11 alleged drug traffickers?
This article is based on a discussion between the editor -in -chief of Insight Crime, Deborah Bonello and the director Jeremy McDermott. You can watch the video here.
The details on the ship that have been destroyed in an apparent missile strike is always summary. Here is what can be gleaned so far from different sources in Venezuela, published video and American statements:
- The ship was a 12-meter-long speed boat with four outboard motors. This is on the big side for a board to break and could have transported a large payload of drugs.
- Of the 11 people who would have been on board, most came from the coastal city of San Juan de Unare, in the state of sugar, which is opposite the islands of Trinidad and Tobago. It is a city known for smuggling and about 180 kilometers from Trinidad and Tobago, where the boat was heading.
- President Donald Trump poster On Truth Social that the crew had been “narcoterorists Tren of Aragua identified positively… .tda is an designated foreign terrorist organization, operating under the control of Nicolas Maduro, responsible for mass murder, drug trafficking, sex traffic and acts of violence and narcotic terroris, head of the United States. »»
- At a press conference on September 2, President Trump declared That Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela is “one of the greatest drug traffickers in the world”.
- During a press conference in Mexico City the day after the strike, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared: “Instead of detecting it, on the president's orders, we have exploded. And that will happen again.” This seems to indicate a change in American policy in the strategy of the United States.
What can we take away?
1. The pits which cover long distances generally have only a team of 2/3 people, perhaps four if there are fear of hacking and armed protection must be reinforced. Thus, this ship was probably not linked to the United States, although if it transported drugs, it could have been the first step in a much longer trip. With 11 people on board, there could also have been a human smuggling element. You do not need 11 people aboard a single ship to get smuggled medicines, even for a very large shipment.
2. Evidence suggests that this boat was heading for Trinidad and Tobago, not a usual stop for drugs for the United States. The boost carrying medication for the United States generally starts from the north coast of Colombia or Venezuela and go to the Dominican Republic. There are routes that were taped on the Caribbean islands, but these drug charges are often to Europe, taking advantage of European territories abroad, such as the French islands (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint Martin or Saint-Barthémy), the Dutch islands (Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire, British, Saba and Sin is Caymans, Monserrat, Turks and Caicos). Drugs can be discharged on these islands, then smuggling with abundant tourist flights, air freight, certain containers or yachts, which regularly cross the Atlantic for Europe.
3. Was the crew all members of Tren from Aragua? It seems unlikely. Although there was an attempt by Tren of Aragua several years ago to create an outpost in the Venezuelan state of sugar, it did not succeed, and they were pushed by local gangs which long controlled smuggling paths in the eastern Caribbean. We have not found any evidence to date that Tren de Aragua is involved in transnational drug trafficking. Its criminal portfolio is built around smuggling and human trafficking, extortion and certain micro-work, that is to say retail sale of drugs in the neighborhoods, they have a strong presence. There may be cases where the members of Tren of Aragua have worked as a subcontracted work for drug trafficking organizations, but there are few Concrete examples of that.
See also: Tren de Aragua: Fact v fiction
4. Is Maduro “one of the biggest drug traffickers in the world”? This allegation is built around a Indictment act 2020 Against Maduro and Diosdado Cabello, the number two Venezuelan regime, to be “managers and managers of the Cártel de los Solesor “Cartel des Suns”. The Suns Cartel, for Insight Crime, is not a vertically integrated drug trafficking organization, but rather a system of hybrid criminal Governance that Maduro presides over, where the current regime has created alliances with criminal actors to access the criminal rents necessary to maintain the regime afloat and reward the loyalists. The Maduro system regulates these criminal economies, including cocaine trade. It is difficult to classify Maduro as one of the largest drug traffickers in the world, but he presides over a drug trafficking regime integrated into the state.
5. Will this new approach and the naval deployment will have a lasting effect on Venezuela's drug trade or elsewhere? Admittedly, drug traffickers will think twice before sending renowned launches from the Venezuelan coast while the American armada is there. The Maduro regime has also responded to American action by conducting its own counter-structure operation in the country. This will probably have frozen much of the drug trade via Venezuela, even this operating with the permission of the Maduro regime. However, this will not stop the flow of cocaine, simply divert it to different starting points and routes. We are likely to see cocaine moving still in southern Venezuela towards Guyana, Suriname and Northern Brazil, although these starting points tend to be more directed to Europe than the United States. Part of the cocaine sitting in Colombia and which was to move through Venezuela could now be transferred directly to the Caribbean coast to Colombia to bounce back to Central America on the United States or be pushed in the roads of the Pacific Ocean. At best, American action has interrupted well -established drug contraband paths, but did not get a little more. For the moment.
