Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa said that, two years later, his crackdown on organized crime is entering a “new phase” that combines the same brutal militarization in the country with a new emphasis on international cooperation, particularly with the United States and Europe. But will this new phase be better than the old one?
The overhaul of old security measures, such as curfews and mass arrests of suspected gang collaborators, is now complemented by US-backed airstrikes and operations against transatlantic drug trafficking organizations in tandem with European agencies.
The moves come as Noboa faces pressure to respond to rising levels of violence in Ecuador. His administration has captured the leaders of the country's most powerful organized crime groups: the Lobos, Choneros, TigueronsAnd Chone Killers. But the arrests gave rise to power struggles that pushed the homicide rate to a record high. 50 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025. Ecuador was the most violent country in Latin America for the second year in a row.
More Mano Dura, more problems?
On March 3, the United States Southern Command announced that it carry out joint operations with Ecuador against “narcoterrorists”. The U.S. government considers two Ecuadorian criminal groups – the Lobos and the Choneros – to be “foreign terrorist organizations.” Days later, officials from both countries released video of Ecuadorian forces carrying out airstrikes on a structure in a forested area near a river.
Ecuador claimed the camp, located in the province of Sucumbíos, near the border with Colombia, was a rest area used by Border Command leader Johnathan Alfredy Tole Collazos, aka “Mono Sheet.” The Border Command, born in Colombia, is one of the many criminal groups overseeing cocaine trafficking routes and illegal mining in the Ecuadorian border region. Residents speaking to New York Times However, in the region, the military struck a dairy farm.
The bombings represent a new escalation in the use of force in the region and reflect attacks that left at least 163 dead in US strikes against suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific, which began in September last year. But ground strikes on the Ecuadorian border promise few security gains.
“Opening a camp in northern Ecuador, in remote areas, does not change the security situation for the vast majority of Ecuadorians, who live in large urban centers,” James Bosworth, founder of the political risk analysis firm Hxagon, told InSight Crime.
As the strikes hit, Noboa was in Miami for the inauguration of the “Shield of the Americas,” a “military coalition” led by U.S. President Donald Trump that seeks to “eradicate criminal cartels.” Shortly after, Noboa's government imposed a 15-day curfew in four provinces, saying it would “attack and destroy” criminal groups at night. Civil servants said U.S. security forces are believed to be assisting but have not provided further details.
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Curfews and security operations are a constant in Ecuador. A study of the Ecuadorian Conflict Observatory (Observatorio Ecuatoriano de Conflictos) found that the coastal provinces of Manabí, Guayas, Los Ríos and El Oro were subject to a state of exception — a measure that allows the military to assist police in anti-crime operations and suspends rights such as protection against warrantless entry — for 82 percent of the first two years of Noboa's presidency.
Security operations aimed at combating organized crime have conflict generated within and between groups as they adapt to the arrests of their leaders. What’s more, mass detentions – more than 2,000 people were detained during the two-week curfew in March – feeding more people into a prison system that is a breeding ground and recruitment area for criminal groups.
Fernando Carrión, an Ecuadorian security expert, sees no indication that the Noboa administration's new offensive will have a long-term impact on criminal groups.
“(There could be) some sort of strategic withdrawal on the part of criminal organizations to better understand how things work,” he told InSight Crime. “And then, once they understand this situation, I have the impression that they will return to their activities even more forcefully.”
Ecuador is not El Salvador
Many Ecuadorians support Noboa's tough measures against crime. Faced with a drastic increase in crimes such as homicides, extortion and kidnapping, civilians have demanded immediate results from their government, favoring militarized approaches over long-term political solutions.
“Citizens don't believe that state institutions are capable of tackling organized crime, and that contributes to the idea that there might be a magic bullet,” Sebastián Cutrona, a professor of criminology at Hope University in Liverpool who studies security policy and public opinion, told InSight Crime.
This idea is exacerbated by the widely shared narrative of the success of the security model imposed by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, whose controversial repression on street gangs converted the country the most violent region among the safesteffectively dismantling the old power MS13 And Ward 18 gangs. But for Cutrona, there is little hope that similar measures will work in Ecuador.
“Unlike the case of El Salvador, here we are talking about drug trafficking organizations that have more power, bigger revenues and therefore more chances of confronting the state,” he said.
An element of hope for the new phase?
The European Union's cooperation with Ecuador has focused on dismantling the complex cocaine trafficking networks that link Ecuador and Europe. This strategy could ultimately prove more sustainable and more damaging to criminal networks than military force.
Ecuadorian police, in collaboration with European law enforcement, arrested 43 people in early March linked to two cocaine trafficking networks involving the Lobos, LagartosAnd Albanian mafia groups. Together, these networks allegedly conspired to transport at least nine tons of cocaine from Ecuador to Europe via shipping containers.
The European Union has also opened a new joint intelligence center with Ecuadorian security forces and announced investments in training and infrastructure in Ecuador's seaports. This type of cooperation targets brokers and specialized links in the drug trafficking chain, as opposed to rank-and-file gang members arrested during military operations on the streets.
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“Cocaine is not a nationwide illegal market, so it requires a transnational (law enforcement) approach,” Cutrona said.
The United States also agrees with the sharing of intelligence and open a Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) office in Ecuador on March 11. The FBI has already assisted in the investigation into the murder of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in 2023, and US intelligence would have the key At capture from the leader of the Choneros Adolfo Macías Villamar, aka “Fito” in 2025.
“We should want to see this kind of intelligence sharing, training and criminal prosecutions,” Bosworth said of the FBI announcement. “It’s much better than dropping bombs on criminals and is much more likely to succeed in the long term.”
Cover image: President Noboa meets with former U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem in Manta, Ecuador, November 2025. Credit: Associated Press (AP) / Alex Brandon
